Pegasus Market Update Q4 2025:No.23
Top of mind moving forward through the rest of the year and into 2026 is below. Enjoy your Thanksgiving Holiday and please know that our company is very grateful for the opportunity to work with all of you - our clients who in many ways have become friends through quite a few ups and downs not just this year but many years past.
Market Conditions
Rates are moving down consistently from the increases assessed November 1, even with schedule being significantly reduced (see attached) - we expect rates to continue a flat to down trajectory for the remainder of the year and into 2026.
Transpacific routes experienced the sharpest declines, EC and WC spot rates down 15-20%.... There was a bump on November 1 in terms of volume and price, but it was short lived as most of us had discussed individually.
Great info and link from Lars Jensen.
Data from Vizion points to a -19% year-on-year decline for US container volume imports in November and December. Looking at Q3 2025 versus Q3 2024, the report shows major volume decline with Toys down 35%, Furniture & Bedding down 33%, Apparel and Footwear down 10-17% and solar panels down 67%.
A link to the report by Vizion: https://www.vizionapi.com/blog/us-container-import...
(chart from vizioinapi)
Red Sea Re-opening
This would be great for transit times, consistency and ocean shipping overall from India and the Middle East/Subcontinent to the USEC. It will be more bad news for carrier freight rates as the re-opening would effectively put the previously absorbed capacity via Africa back into the market.
Carrier and Market Expectations for 2026 and beyond.
I've attached an interesting presentation from an old colleague, and I could not advise better info myself, so it is for you use as you see fit for your 2026 budgets etc.
Given this baseline, on would expect in 2026:
Ocean rates to stay flat to down as a result of significant over capacity against demand - possibly we may see a replenishment spike IF it is a good Christmas season and there is some movement on tariffs - otherwise I'd say it's unlikely.
More vessel tonnage removed from the Transpacific trade and schedule adjustments as a result - carriers will add tonnage to other tradelines where the demand is higher in order to capitalize
I have heard on more than one occasion and source that there may some updated tariff agreements in the works with India, Brazil and a few other countries but it is only secondhand information so far.
As far as tariff constitutionality and potential refunds, do not hold your breath. Even IF tariffs are deemed unconstitutional (which I personally think is correct) I do believe it will be a long and arduous process to apply for and receive refunds despite how simple it may appear.....
Author
Matthew Crocker
Chief Commercial Officer
Additional information Links:
TP trade - Blank Sailing and Service Suspension - 11 Nov 2025