Pegasus Market Update Q2 2026: No. 26
Hello Everyone, Happy Easter -
Some light reading for the longer weekend - we have had to revise this several times as every day there is some new development. All of this is a very fluid situation to say the least and we appreciate all the support and patience with the process of keeping your freight moving and minimizing your exposure. We are as always here for any questions you might have
Today, we'll focus on 3 things at the top of everyone's mind - Tariffs and Developments (as usual), Fuel Costs and Market Rate Expectations:
I added a few links to articles regarding the tariffs and CAPE implementation for refunds. As of this writing and literally as I was putting this together the President signed another Executive Order regarding NEW changes to Section 232 steel tariffs that will start to apply on April 6. I do love it when the Executive Branch gives us lots of notice like this.
Tariffs and Refunds:
- Despite numerous articles and plenty of theoretical discussion, there is still a long way to go on any tariff refunds.
- I'd also recommend knowing how compliant your company is with trade/customs laws and that your broker has been 100% on their game for the past year (for those of you not using our CHB service)
- When you sign up for the refund portal, it is important you understand that you are opening yourself up to customs scrutiny on each individual entry you are applying for.
- It is akin to starting an audit with the IRS and letting them know they owe you money. It will move at a similar pace per entry; requiring the same type of administration and evidentiary information exchange. This is how it should be approached and expected to progress - except every importer will be doing it at the same time.
- The Administration also signed a new executive order regarding Section 232 Metal tariffs - attached is pretty self-explanatory and there are links within as well that can lead your individual research. It won't take long to see that previous rules will not apply.
Fuel Pricing:
It does not take a genius to say fuel will be going up - the question is for how long (ripple effect) and how much? Right now, there are no concrete answers for either one, however, I've attached what carriers are currently increasing the bunker price to on ocean cargo.
You should also expect all trucking to increase substantially as fuel is one of their larger costs. Fuel is up well over 50% from late February - trucking will be almost 100% on individual spot/load pricing at this point, and negotiable increases on long term/consistent business.
From a timeline perspective, I'd expect at least a 60-day lag (probably 90+) from the time the strait of Hormuz opens - so that means the whole of 2Q at a minimum.
I also received a signal on where the carrier fuel market might be May 1 (according to MSC)
EFS/EBS summary
- Lots of routing issues with Middle East closures as expected - Jeddah is open and I do believe Jebel Ali is on the way as well sooner than later, but all India and Middle East cargo will continue to route around the horn of Africa for the foreseeable future.
- Ocean pricing generally has also gone the way of truck pricing. Spot market rates are now only good for 1 week until further notice - plus fuel changes, war risk, GRI, PSS etc. depending on your port pair
- Expectation for April 8 rates is another increase of around $300-400; April 15 rates and/or May 1 rate will be increasing dramatically depending on the carrier and the situation (attached a table and few emails for you)
- MSC is also doubling their booking cancellation fee to $200
Author
Matthew Crocker
Chief Commercial Officer
https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/f9aa8974-6...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-31...
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/tariff-refund...
