Shipping Logistics

Market Update Q3 2024: No.9

August 23, 2024

All,

Exciting week - some insight into where we are headed below. I've added a few links as well to some interesting articles etc.:

Market/Rate indications

I've added the carrier-specific rate increases below - however - not every rate is consistent, and some deals can be found depending on the situation.

While market increases have been announced, the market is not as strong as it would appear from the announcements. I've also added what I consider a very aggressive filing from MSC for India but I am very doubtful that something like this will happen as printed.

  • OOCL from 15th Aug, adding $1100 for WC/IPI, $800 for GC/EC /RIPI.
  • MSC from 15th Aug, adding $1200 for WC/IPI, and $900 for GC/EC /RIPI.
  • ONE from 15th Aug, WC+1200 EC+800 GC+900 inland+1000
  • ZIM from 15th Aug, adding $900 for GC/EC /RIPI.
  • SML FAK rate from 15th Aug, PNW/PSW+$1200/40', USCHI +$1300/40', IPI+$1000/40'
  • HMM rate from 15th Aug, WC/IPI +$1200/40', EC/RIPI +$800/40', GC+$900/40'
  • COSCO from 15th Aug, adding $1100 for WC, $800 for GC/EC
  • HPL rate from 15th Aug, WC/IPI+$1200/40', EC/GC/RIPI+$800/40'
  • EMC from 15th Aug, increase $1200 for WC/IPI, $800 for EC/RIPI
  • CMA from 15th Aug, increase $1100 for WC/IPI, $800 for EC/RIP

Please refer to the attachment for blank sailings and vessel schedules ex China.
You will likely see some scenarios soon where space is pulled moving to the EC and rates will stay high there and in the Gulf. Similar to the reduction of cargo moving into the PNW with the rail strike.

Rates to LA and main IPI destinations via LA, such as Chicago, are much more negotiable and will be the first to be reduced.

There are 3 things at the forefront of the market turmoil moving forward, and somewhat slowing what we had thought would be a freight reduction (it is still coming just a little slower than expected).

Canada Rail Strike - is confirmed as of today (article below) which means anything moving through Vancouver is effectively going nowhere for at least a week or more, likely more...

As of writing, the workers have been ordered to work through the arbitration process, but I'd expect a very slow rail turnover while this is worked out.

Ningbo Explosion - a good reminder that DG declaration accuracy is important. Moreover, it shuts down the port of Ningbo and snarls up vessel schedules and nearby origin loading such as Shanghai.

China Port Explosion News - click for more info


Author
Matthew Crocker / CCO


Image Credits: Aerial view of a rescue boat putting out fire after a powerful explosion hit a container ship berthed at the Ningbo-Zhoushan Port on August 9, 2024 in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province of China. Currently, no casualties or injuries have been reported. VCG/VCG via AP

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